Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. (301209.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.67 - $23.79$16.33
Multi-Stage$16.69 - $18.32$17.48
Blended Fair Value$16.91
Current Price$116.95
Upside-85.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS53.53%0.00%0.180.160.000.000.400.020.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.11%0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,787.73%-71.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%1.13%0.00%0.00%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.957.474.48
Cash Retained (M)37.3637.3637.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.95-7.47-4.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.4129.8932.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)87.9987.9987.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Fair Value$11.67$16.33$23.79
Upside / Downside-90.03%-86.04%-79.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.7661.4263.1364.8866.6868.5370.58
Payout Ratio37.48%47.98%58.49%68.99%79.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4029.4736.9244.7653.0161.6765.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)27.4027.6727.94
Year 2 PV (M)31.9132.5433.18
Year 3 PV (M)35.9737.0438.13
Year 4 PV (M)39.6041.1842.81
Year 5 PV (M)42.8444.9847.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,290.501,355.161,422.38
Equity Value (M)1,468.221,538.581,611.66
Shares Outstanding (M)87.9987.9987.99
Fair Value$16.69$17.48$18.32
Upside / Downside-85.73%-85.05%-84.34%

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