Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Voneseals Technology (Shanghai) Inc. (301161.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.73 - $8.89$7.19
Multi-Stage$13.32 - $14.66$13.97
Blended Fair Value$10.58
Current Price$38.03
Upside-72.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-0.33%0.00%0.440.170.040.060.200.440.090.010.000.00
YoY Growth--154.63%343.52%-33.24%-70.34%-56.01%393.06%1,549.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.99%0.97%0.16%0.21%0.70%1.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.529.075.44
Cash Retained (M)33.2433.2433.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.52-9.07-5.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.7224.1727.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.84118.84118.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.73$7.19$8.89
Upside / Downside-84.93%-81.08%-76.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.5971.8671.1470.4369.7369.0371.10
Payout Ratio54.21%61.36%68.52%75.68%82.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3544.1048.7553.3057.7662.1365.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.0441.4641.88
Year 2 PV (M)42.2343.1043.97
Year 3 PV (M)42.9844.3145.67
Year 4 PV (M)43.3545.1547.00
Year 5 PV (M)43.4045.6648.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,369.601,440.921,515.18
Equity Value (M)1,582.611,660.591,741.71
Shares Outstanding (M)118.84118.84118.84
Fair Value$13.32$13.97$14.66
Upside / Downside-64.98%-63.26%-61.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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