Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangyin Electrical Alloy Co.,Ltd (300697.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.65 - $23.02$14.26
Multi-Stage$11.10 - $12.17$11.63
Blended Fair Value$12.95
Current Price$18.91
Upside-31.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.68%4.83%0.220.200.190.270.200.180.090.000.060.06
YoY Growth--10.73%3.93%-30.04%37.88%7.93%107.78%0.00%-100.00%-0.34%-59.71%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.12%2.35%3.34%2.27%2.76%1.43%0.00%1.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2120.7612.46
Cash Retained (M)98.0498.0498.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.21-20.76-12.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.8277.2885.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)358.25358.25358.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate2.83%3.83%4.83%
Fair Value$9.65$14.26$23.02
Upside / Downside-48.98%-24.57%21.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.07172.44179.05185.92193.05200.45206.46
Payout Ratio40.97%50.77%60.58%70.39%80.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.0487.56108.47130.86154.81180.40190.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate2.83%3.83%4.83%
Year 1 PV (M)81.2081.9982.78
Year 2 PV (M)93.3095.1296.96
Year 3 PV (M)104.39107.46110.60
Year 4 PV (M)114.53119.05123.70
Year 5 PV (M)123.78129.91136.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,460.393,631.953,810.24
Equity Value (M)3,977.594,165.494,360.58
Shares Outstanding (M)358.25358.25358.25
Fair Value$11.10$11.63$12.17
Upside / Downside-41.29%-38.51%-35.63%

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