Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CSG Smart Science&Technology Co.,Ltd. (300222.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.23 - $1.86$1.53
Multi-Stage$2.43 - $2.67$2.55
Blended Fair Value$2.04
Current Price$13.56
Upside-84.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.46%-5.77%0.020.020.030.050.060.170.130.060.050.02
YoY Growth---34.01%-34.44%-25.45%-15.13%-67.76%33.70%128.66%3.54%221.58%-38.56%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.35%0.44%0.62%0.73%2.26%1.69%0.74%0.71%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2713.928.35
Cash Retained (M)104.68104.68104.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.27-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.4090.7696.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)778.75778.75778.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.23$1.53$1.86
Upside / Downside-90.91%-88.72%-86.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.37110.26109.15108.06106.98105.91109.09
Payout Ratio6.01%22.81%39.61%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.6925.1543.2360.9578.3195.32100.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.2423.4823.72
Year 2 PV (M)36.9337.6938.45
Year 3 PV (M)48.1349.6151.13
Year 4 PV (M)57.1559.5261.96
Year 5 PV (M)64.2967.6471.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,659.731,746.151,836.14
Equity Value (M)1,889.471,984.102,082.54
Shares Outstanding (M)778.75778.75778.75
Fair Value$2.43$2.55$2.67
Upside / Downside-82.11%-81.21%-80.28%

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