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FDC International Hotels Corporation (2748.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.04 - $72.33$51.02
Multi-Stage$61.56 - $67.49$64.47
Blended Fair Value$57.74
Current Price$45.75
Upside26.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.23%0.00%2.011.250.430.720.621.711.711.561.430.86
YoY Growth--61.02%190.42%-40.06%15.00%-63.64%0.00%10.00%9.38%66.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.65%1.72%0.47%1.77%1.46%5.44%3.18%3.16%2.98%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)243.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)211.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.6030.3818.23
Cash Retained (M)31.4531.4531.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.60-30.38-18.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.151.0813.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.27105.27105.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.160.010.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.160.010.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$37.04$51.02$72.33
Upside / Downside-19.04%11.52%58.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)243.01248.42253.95259.60265.38271.29279.42
Payout Ratio87.06%87.65%88.23%88.82%89.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)211.56217.73224.07230.58237.28244.16258.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)202.87204.88206.88
Year 2 PV (M)194.53198.40202.30
Year 3 PV (M)186.53192.11197.81
Year 4 PV (M)178.85186.02193.41
Year 5 PV (M)171.48180.11189.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,545.535,824.916,115.44
Equity Value (M)6,479.796,786.437,104.93
Shares Outstanding (M)105.27105.27105.27
Fair Value$61.56$64.47$67.49
Upside / Downside34.55%40.92%47.53%

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