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Tsann Kuen (China) Enterprise Co., Ltd. (200512.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.20 - $3.24$2.70
Multi-Stage$5.77 - $6.35$6.05
Blended Fair Value$4.38
Current Price$3.08
Upside42.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.51%3.29%0.270.130.110.150.100.040.080.120.100.16
YoY Growth--113.05%11.37%-23.43%50.32%155.74%-53.40%-31.56%21.50%-38.97%-16.33%
Dividend Yield--8.09%4.45%3.60%4.80%2.32%1.38%2.96%3.71%1.73%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.966.854.11
Cash Retained (M)13.7613.7613.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.96-6.85-4.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.806.919.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)190.49190.49190.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-3.65%-2.65%-1.65%
Fair Value$2.20$2.70$3.24
Upside / Downside-28.52%-12.30%5.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.7953.3451.9350.5649.2247.9249.36
Payout Ratio74.88%77.91%80.93%83.95%86.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.0341.5642.0342.4542.8143.1345.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-3.65%-2.65%-1.65%
Year 1 PV (M)38.6539.0539.45
Year 2 PV (M)36.3537.1137.87
Year 3 PV (M)34.1435.2136.31
Year 4 PV (M)32.0233.3734.76
Year 5 PV (M)30.0031.5933.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)927.20976.331,027.51
Equity Value (M)1,098.361,152.661,209.16
Shares Outstanding (M)190.49190.49190.49
Fair Value$5.77$6.05$6.35
Upside / Downside87.20%96.46%106.09%

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