Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (1811.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.35 - $22.32$20.91
Multi-Stage$3.44 - $3.76$3.60
Blended Fair Value$12.25
Current Price$0.32
Upside3,780.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.05%0.00%0.020.010.010.020.000.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--71.46%5.62%-45.90%0.00%-100.00%41.67%-23.40%6.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.07%3.55%2.49%1.52%0.00%3.58%2.61%3.17%2.97%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)481.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)352.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.2860.1836.11
Cash Retained (M)352.48352.48352.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.28-60.18-36.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)256.20292.30316.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,290.154,290.154,290.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.35$20.91$22.32
Upside / Downside3,493.66%6,521.75%6,965.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)481.41512.70546.02581.51619.31659.57679.35
Payout Ratio26.78%39.42%52.07%64.71%77.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.93202.13284.31376.31479.08593.61628.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)188.30190.09191.87
Year 2 PV (M)246.74251.44256.19
Year 3 PV (M)304.25312.99321.89
Year 4 PV (M)360.84374.72389.00
Year 5 PV (M)416.53436.65457.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,223.9413,862.6614,525.82
Equity Value (M)14,740.6115,428.5416,142.30
Shares Outstanding (M)4,290.154,290.154,290.15
Fair Value$3.44$3.60$3.76
Upside / Downside987.90%1,038.67%1,091.35%

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