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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (0JQQ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.50 - $53.97$41.22
Multi-Stage$37.40 - $40.80$39.06
Blended Fair Value$40.14
Current Price$59.74
Upside-32.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.54%4.67%2.042.021.861.721.671.631.571.511.451.42
YoY Growth--0.82%8.68%7.79%3.09%2.53%4.09%3.84%4.14%2.04%10.10%
Dividend Yield--4.24%3.24%2.33%1.91%2.93%4.64%3.67%3.48%3.15%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,189.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)984.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.80148.6389.18
Cash Retained (M)205.00205.00205.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.80-148.63-89.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.8056.38115.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.75483.75483.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.120.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.120.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Fair Value$31.50$41.22$53.97
Upside / Downside-47.27%-31.00%-9.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,189.001,232.641,277.891,324.801,373.431,423.841,466.56
Payout Ratio82.76%84.21%85.66%87.10%88.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)984.001,037.971,094.581,153.951,216.191,281.461,356.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)942.39951.57960.75
Year 2 PV (M)902.27919.94937.77
Year 3 PV (M)863.62889.10915.08
Year 4 PV (M)826.39859.06892.69
Year 5 PV (M)790.55829.81870.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,764.6214,448.1415,158.54
Equity Value (M)18,089.8518,897.6119,735.43
Shares Outstanding (M)483.75483.75483.75
Fair Value$37.40$39.06$40.80
Upside / Downside-37.40%-34.61%-31.71%

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