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Crown Holdings, Inc. (0I4X.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.08 - $119.03$96.56
Multi-Stage$102.63 - $112.62$107.53
Blended Fair Value$102.04
Current Price$96.59
Upside5.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.020.980.910.900.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.48%8.49%0.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.24%1.10%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)946.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)827.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.20118.2570.95
Cash Retained (M)827.00827.00827.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.20-118.25-70.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)637.80708.75756.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)116.78116.78116.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.466.076.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.466.076.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.487.097.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Fair Value$77.08$96.56$119.03
Upside / Downside-20.20%-0.04%23.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)946.00961.48977.22993.211,009.461,025.981,056.76
Payout Ratio12.58%28.06%43.55%59.03%74.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.00269.82425.55586.31752.21923.39977.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)244.89247.32249.76
Year 2 PV (M)350.54357.54364.61
Year 3 PV (M)438.32451.52464.98
Year 4 PV (M)510.38530.97552.18
Year 5 PV (M)568.63597.45627.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,871.3710,371.6610,892.04
Equity Value (M)11,984.1312,556.4613,150.98
Shares Outstanding (M)116.78116.78116.78
Fair Value$102.63$107.53$112.62
Upside / Downside6.25%11.32%16.59%

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