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China Water Affairs Group Limited (0855.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.65 - $214.94$110.20
Multi-Stage$32.72 - $35.83$34.25
Blended Fair Value$72.22
Current Price$6.70
Upside977.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.02%18.29%0.280.340.180.320.300.290.270.230.080.07
YoY Growth---17.65%88.89%-43.75%6.14%2.27%10.77%13.39%184.33%26.64%24.86%
Dividend Yield--4.18%6.77%2.81%3.73%4.74%5.07%3.26%2.94%1.61%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,782.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,012.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)770.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)356.46222.79133.67
Cash Retained (M)770.27770.27770.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-356.46-222.79-133.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)413.81547.48636.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$47.65$110.20$214.94
Upside / Downside611.23%1,544.74%3,108.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,782.311,878.351,979.572,086.252,198.672,317.152,386.66
Payout Ratio56.78%63.43%70.07%76.71%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,012.041,191.361,387.081,600.421,832.732,085.432,207.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)1,110.101,120.731,131.36
Year 2 PV (M)1,204.291,227.481,250.88
Year 3 PV (M)1,294.741,332.301,370.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,381.541,435.241,490.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,464.791,536.311,610.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,952.6249,245.0551,626.17
Equity Value (M)53,408.0755,897.1158,480.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
Fair Value$32.72$34.25$35.83
Upside / Downside388.42%411.19%434.81%

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