Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Celltrion, Inc. (068270.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97,007.48 - $335,506.52$159,784.30
Multi-Stage$61,960.89 - $67,742.07$64,798.82
Blended Fair Value$112,291.56
Current Price$173,400.00
Upside-35.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%314.98%489.55244.12484.100.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.54%-49.57%2,709,526.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%944.20%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.14%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737,835.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153,763.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)584,071.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147,567.0792,229.4255,337.65
Cash Retained (M)584,071.86584,071.86584,071.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-147,567.07-92,229.42-55,337.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)436,504.79491,842.44528,734.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.63211.63211.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,062.572,324.052,498.37
LTM Dividend per Share726.56726.56726.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,062.572,324.052,498.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,789.133,050.613,224.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97,007.48$159,784.30$335,506.52
Upside / Downside-44.06%-7.85%93.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737,835.37785,794.67836,871.33891,267.96949,200.381,010,898.401,041,225.36
Payout Ratio20.84%34.67%48.50%62.34%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153,763.51272,449.55405,915.13555,580.13722,986.59909,808.56963,133.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)248,671.45251,028.53253,385.60
Year 2 PV (M)338,154.29344,595.18351,096.83
Year 3 PV (M)422,441.13434,567.90446,924.55
Year 4 PV (M)501,752.52521,048.50540,895.76
Year 5 PV (M)576,300.73604,136.27633,037.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,025,571.9911,558,111.2412,111,032.02
Equity Value (M)13,112,892.1113,713,487.6214,336,371.91
Shares Outstanding (M)211.63211.63211.63
Fair Value$61,960.89$64,798.82$67,742.07
Upside / Downside-64.27%-62.63%-60.93%

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