Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

UTour Group Co., Ltd. (002707.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.29 - $0.40$0.34
Multi-Stage$0.97 - $1.07$1.02
Blended Fair Value$0.68
Current Price$7.36
Upside-90.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.28%8.39%0.030.030.040.050.060.070.080.050.060.02
YoY Growth---21.11%-18.51%-14.48%-13.88%-23.04%-9.21%49.11%-4.28%141.45%96.36%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.49%0.44%0.65%0.88%1.58%0.98%0.43%0.37%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.896.183.71
Cash Retained (M)35.3935.3935.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.89-6.18-3.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.5029.2131.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)991.97991.97991.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate-7.08%-6.08%-5.08%
Fair Value$0.29$0.34$0.40
Upside / Downside-96.11%-95.34%-94.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.4446.4343.6140.9638.4736.1437.22
Payout Ratio28.41%40.73%53.05%65.37%77.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0518.9123.1426.7829.8932.5234.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate-7.08%-6.08%-5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)17.6717.8618.05
Year 2 PV (M)20.2020.6421.08
Year 3 PV (M)21.8522.5623.29
Year 4 PV (M)22.7923.7924.82
Year 5 PV (M)23.1724.4525.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)853.13900.03948.98
Equity Value (M)958.821,009.331,061.99
Shares Outstanding (M)991.97991.97991.97
Fair Value$0.97$1.02$1.07
Upside / Downside-86.87%-86.18%-85.45%

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