Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd. (002549.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.93 - $16.43$15.39
Multi-Stage$21.15 - $23.32$22.21
Blended Fair Value$18.80
Current Price$24.34
Upside-22.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.52%6.86%0.030.030.080.080.130.120.060.090.010.02
YoY Growth---2.14%-58.50%0.69%-42.65%11.56%89.36%-31.05%722.42%-46.74%29.69%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.41%0.54%0.48%1.48%1.95%0.84%1.46%0.13%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.027.514.51
Cash Retained (M)49.2349.2349.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.02-7.51-4.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.2141.7244.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)695.18695.18695.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate-16.18%-16.18%-16.18%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$13.93$15.39$16.43
Upside / Downside-42.76%-36.77%-32.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.1161.1462.1863.2464.3265.4267.38
Payout Ratio18.10%32.48%46.86%61.24%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8819.8629.1438.7348.6458.8862.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-16.18%-16.18%-16.18%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)23.4623.6923.93
Year 2 PV (M)40.6741.4842.30
Year 3 PV (M)63.8665.7867.74
Year 4 PV (M)94.7498.56102.49
Year 5 PV (M)135.48142.34149.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,341.6315,067.9615,823.42
Equity Value (M)14,699.8315,439.8016,209.35
Shares Outstanding (M)695.18695.18695.18
Fair Value$21.15$22.21$23.32
Upside / Downside-13.13%-8.75%-4.20%

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