Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd (002406.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.02 - $1.42$1.22
Multi-Stage$1.57 - $1.73$1.65
Blended Fair Value$1.44
Current Price$7.76
Upside-81.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.08%-1.41%0.100.090.080.220.190.040.250.120.080.08
YoY Growth--7.43%22.74%-64.51%11.25%400.02%-84.38%113.33%50.00%0.00%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.46%1.31%3.95%3.08%0.72%3.63%1.70%0.81%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.4915.939.56
Cash Retained (M)127.46127.46127.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.49-15.93-9.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.97111.53117.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)720.09720.09720.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-3.41%-2.41%-1.41%
Fair Value$1.02$1.22$1.42
Upside / Downside-86.79%-84.22%-81.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.47124.40121.40118.48115.62112.84116.22
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0122.4043.7163.9883.25101.55107.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-3.41%-2.41%-1.41%
Year 1 PV (M)20.1720.3820.59
Year 2 PV (M)35.4336.1736.91
Year 3 PV (M)46.6948.1549.65
Year 4 PV (M)54.6956.9959.36
Year 5 PV (M)60.0663.2366.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)916.35964.781,015.24
Equity Value (M)1,133.391,189.701,248.28
Shares Outstanding (M)720.09720.09720.09
Fair Value$1.57$1.65$1.73
Upside / Downside-79.72%-78.71%-77.66%

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