Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Changchun UP Optotech Co.,Ltd. (002338.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.10 - $49.61$46.49
Multi-Stage$31.81 - $34.94$33.35
Blended Fair Value$39.92
Current Price$57.65
Upside-30.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.02%-6.71%0.070.040.050.080.050.050.030.110.090.15
YoY Growth--85.30%-19.82%-43.57%58.77%0.65%66.88%-72.94%26.81%-39.12%6.92%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.12%0.17%0.44%0.30%0.38%0.19%0.84%0.38%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.817.384.43
Cash Retained (M)40.4940.4940.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.81-7.38-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.6733.1036.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)235.12235.12235.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate-0.43%-0.43%-0.43%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$42.10$46.49$49.61
Upside / Downside-26.97%-19.36%-13.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.0762.4666.0469.8273.8278.0580.39
Payout Ratio31.46%43.17%54.88%66.58%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.5926.9636.2446.4957.7970.2474.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.43%-0.43%-0.43%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)26.8227.0827.34
Year 2 PV (M)35.8736.5537.25
Year 3 PV (M)45.7747.1048.45
Year 4 PV (M)56.6158.8161.06
Year 5 PV (M)68.4571.7875.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,246.367,598.997,965.22
Equity Value (M)7,479.897,840.318,214.55
Shares Outstanding (M)235.12235.12235.12
Fair Value$31.81$33.35$34.94
Upside / Downside-44.82%-42.16%-39.40%

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