Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Great Southeast Corp.Ltd (002263.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.11$0.10
Multi-Stage$0.15 - $0.17$0.16
Blended Fair Value$0.13
Current Price$3.69
Upside-96.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.42%-19.99%0.000.000.000.000.000.010.020.030.020.03
YoY Growth---4.54%643.83%228.46%-29.42%-98.86%-46.19%-15.95%92.03%-42.42%14.38%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.10%0.01%0.00%0.01%0.66%1.13%0.98%0.42%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.176.353.81
Cash Retained (M)50.0550.0550.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.17-6.35-3.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.8843.6946.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,870.941,870.941,870.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.03
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-12.20%-11.20%-10.20%
Fair Value$0.09$0.10$0.11
Upside / Downside-97.67%-97.30%-96.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.8345.1440.0835.6031.6128.0728.91
Payout Ratio1.53%19.23%36.92%54.61%72.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.788.6814.8019.4422.8625.2626.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-12.20%-11.20%-10.20%
Year 1 PV (M)7.807.897.98
Year 2 PV (M)11.9612.2312.51
Year 3 PV (M)14.1214.6115.10
Year 4 PV (M)14.9215.6116.33
Year 5 PV (M)14.8215.6916.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)224.17237.23250.89
Equity Value (M)287.79303.25319.40
Shares Outstanding (M)1,870.941,870.941,870.94
Fair Value$0.15$0.16$0.17
Upside / Downside-95.83%-95.61%-95.37%

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