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Value Line Select Growth Fund (VALSX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.77 - $20.86$17.11
Multi-Stage$20.36 - $22.28$21.30
Blended Fair Value$19.21
Current Price$35.21
Upside-45.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%4.78%0.810.720.690.660.000.000.560.520.500.50
YoY Growth--12.68%4.18%4.45%0.00%0.00%-100.00%7.28%4.74%-0.36%-0.44%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.07%1.61%1.56%0.00%0.00%1.70%1.69%1.42%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.652.281.37
Cash Retained (M)7.987.987.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.65-2.28-1.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.335.706.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7511.7511.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.480.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.480.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.05%1.05%2.05%
Fair Value$13.77$17.11$20.86
Upside / Downside-60.89%-51.41%-40.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.2718.4618.6518.8519.0419.2419.82
Payout Ratio56.29%63.03%69.78%76.52%83.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.2811.6313.0114.4215.8517.3218.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.05%1.05%2.05%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5610.6710.77
Year 2 PV (M)10.7210.9411.15
Year 3 PV (M)10.7811.1111.44
Year 4 PV (M)10.7611.2011.65
Year 5 PV (M)10.6711.2111.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)185.79195.26205.12
Equity Value (M)239.29250.39261.91
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7511.7511.75
Fair Value$20.36$21.30$22.28
Upside / Downside-42.18%-39.50%-36.71%

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