Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Visa Inc. (V)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$232.61 - $617.05$355.68
Multi-Stage$159.00 - $173.73$166.23
Blended Fair Value$260.96
Current Price$341.38
Upside-23.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.71%14.69%2.292.081.851.581.381.321.120.950.780.67
YoY Growth--9.89%12.42%17.11%14.47%5.03%17.41%18.30%21.47%16.96%14.70%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.66%0.71%0.76%0.64%0.60%0.60%0.72%0.68%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,058.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,634.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,424.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,011.602,507.251,504.35
Cash Retained (M)15,424.0015,424.0015,424.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,011.60-2,507.25-1,504.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,412.4012,916.7513,919.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,022.752,022.752,022.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.646.396.88
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.646.396.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.938.689.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$232.61$355.68$617.05
Upside / Downside-31.86%4.19%80.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,058.0021,361.7722,750.2924,229.0525,803.9427,481.2028,305.63
Payout Ratio23.10%36.48%49.86%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,634.007,793.2911,343.7015,322.7419,771.1424,733.0826,182.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,076.317,143.387,210.46
Year 2 PV (M)9,352.489,530.629,710.44
Year 3 PV (M)11,470.8311,800.1112,135.64
Year 4 PV (M)13,439.2813,956.1114,487.71
Year 5 PV (M)15,265.4116,002.7416,768.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)265,007.10277,807.05291,096.87
Equity Value (M)321,611.41336,240.01351,409.41
Shares Outstanding (M)2,022.752,022.752,022.75
Fair Value$159.00$166.23$173.73
Upside / Downside-53.43%-51.31%-49.11%

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