Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Nusatama Berkah Tbk (NTBK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.07 - $2.95$2.50
Multi-Stage$3.15 - $3.46$3.30
Blended Fair Value$2.90
Current Price$58.00
Upside-95.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.130.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--24.26%80.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.25%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)821.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)693.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.30102.6961.61
Cash Retained (M)693.37693.37693.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.30-102.69-61.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)529.08590.69631.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,675.822,675.822,675.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.07$2.50$2.95
Upside / Downside-96.43%-95.69%-94.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)821.48813.27805.14797.09789.11781.22804.66
Payout Ratio15.60%30.48%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.11247.85365.19480.15592.78703.10744.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)223.80226.08228.36
Year 2 PV (M)297.74303.85310.02
Year 3 PV (M)353.48364.41375.56
Year 4 PV (M)394.04410.37427.20
Year 5 PV (M)422.01443.99466.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,738.407,089.287,454.63
Equity Value (M)8,429.468,837.989,262.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,675.822,675.822,675.82
Fair Value$3.15$3.30$3.46
Upside / Downside-94.57%-94.31%-94.03%

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