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Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.44 - $231.71$164.10
Multi-Stage$108.13 - $118.36$113.15
Blended Fair Value$138.63
Current Price$204.64
Upside-32.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.64%0.00%1.131.101.061.031.000.781.080.560.000.00
YoY Growth--2.69%4.11%3.35%2.69%27.35%-27.68%94.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.56%0.73%1.17%1.23%0.99%1.27%0.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)207.78207.78207.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.78178.40190.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.005.555.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.005.555.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.856.406.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$119.44$164.10$231.71
Upside / Downside-41.63%-19.81%13.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.03246.79259.13272.09285.70300.00309.00
Payout Ratio11.59%27.27%42.96%58.64%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2567.31111.31159.55212.33270.00285.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)61.1161.7062.28
Year 2 PV (M)91.7593.5295.31
Year 3 PV (M)119.39122.87126.41
Year 4 PV (M)144.25149.88155.67
Year 5 PV (M)166.53174.69183.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,890.983,032.663,179.85
Equity Value (M)3,474.013,635.323,802.70
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
Fair Value$108.13$113.15$118.36
Upside / Downside-47.16%-44.71%-42.16%

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