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ISA Energía Brasil S.A. (ISAE4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.86 - $65.02$52.57
Multi-Stage$97.31 - $107.14$102.13
Blended Fair Value$77.35
Current Price$24.67
Upside213.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.880.910.154.031.130.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--107.29%511.67%-96.32%255.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.42%3.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,924.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,335.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,588.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)584.99365.62219.37
Cash Retained (M)1,588.951,588.951,588.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-584.99-365.62-219.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,003.961,223.331,369.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)658.93658.93658.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.862.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.862.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.884.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$41.86$52.57$65.02
Upside / Downside69.66%113.09%163.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,924.932,895.682,866.722,838.052,809.672,781.582,865.02
Payout Ratio45.68%54.54%63.41%72.27%81.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,335.981,579.321,817.662,051.072,279.632,503.422,650.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,470.511,485.511,500.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,575.821,608.151,640.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,655.671,706.881,759.12
Year 4 PV (M)1,713.391,784.411,857.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,751.961,843.191,938.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,954.1858,867.8561,901.64
Equity Value (M)64,121.5467,295.9870,597.87
Shares Outstanding (M)658.93658.93658.93
Fair Value$97.31$102.13$107.14
Upside / Downside294.46%313.98%334.30%

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