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Humanica Public Company Limited (HUMAN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.53 - $79.54$40.26
Multi-Stage$9.45 - $10.32$9.88
Blended Fair Value$25.07
Current Price$7.80
Upside221.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.54%0.00%0.260.200.140.110.090.090.060.230.000.00
YoY Growth--29.99%44.52%26.10%16.67%0.00%71.43%-76.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.26%1.73%1.19%0.87%0.90%1.55%0.61%2.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1643.2225.93
Cash Retained (M)87.2987.2987.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.16-43.22-25.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1344.0661.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)864.58864.58864.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.53$40.26$79.54
Upside / Downside124.73%416.14%919.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.80368.27392.21417.70444.85473.77487.98
Payout Ratio74.76%77.81%80.85%83.90%86.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.51286.54317.12350.46386.81426.39451.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)264.22266.73269.23
Year 2 PV (M)269.66274.79279.98
Year 3 PV (M)274.81282.70290.73
Year 4 PV (M)279.69290.44301.51
Year 5 PV (M)284.30298.03312.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,800.297,128.757,469.77
Equity Value (M)8,172.978,541.448,923.52
Shares Outstanding (M)864.58864.58864.58
Fair Value$9.45$9.88$10.32
Upside / Downside21.19%26.66%32.32%

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