Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Exxaro Resources Limited (EXX.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,308.99 - $14,204.33$13,311.54
Multi-Stage$1,897.37 - $2,074.36$1,984.25
Blended Fair Value$7,647.89
Current Price$146.92
Upside5,105.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.24%10.83%23.7822.7936.9552.4816.6124.061.029.222.594.07
YoY Growth--4.34%-38.31%-29.61%215.95%-30.97%2,253.04%-88.91%256.32%-36.48%-52.12%
Dividend Yield--15.06%11.15%17.00%34.33%11.96%18.35%0.74%5.69%2.89%9.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,250.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,862.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,388.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,450.002,156.251,293.75
Cash Retained (M)7,388.007,388.007,388.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,450.00-2,156.25-1,293.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,938.005,231.756,094.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)241.52241.52241.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.3121.6625.23
LTM Dividend per Share40.8340.8340.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.3121.6625.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.1462.5066.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,308.99$13,311.54$14,204.33
Upside / Downside2,832.88%8,960.40%9,568.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,250.0018,371.2519,565.3820,837.1322,191.5423,633.9924,343.01
Payout Ratio57.17%63.74%70.30%76.87%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,862.0011,709.2513,754.9716,017.1718,515.3421,270.6022,517.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,850.7210,953.5711,056.42
Year 2 PV (M)11,811.8612,036.8512,263.95
Year 3 PV (M)12,746.0013,111.8913,484.72
Year 4 PV (M)13,653.6614,178.7414,718.82
Year 5 PV (M)14,535.3815,237.4415,966.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)394,651.16413,712.96433,504.30
Equity Value (M)458,248.78479,231.45500,994.59
Shares Outstanding (M)241.52241.52241.52
Fair Value$1,897.37$1,984.25$2,074.36
Upside / Downside1,191.43%1,250.57%1,311.90%

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