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Evans Bancorp, Inc. (EVBN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.66 - $60.59$44.11
Multi-Stage$33.37 - $36.43$34.88
Blended Fair Value$39.49
Current Price$43.30
Upside-8.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.43%10.30%1.321.311.251.181.080.920.800.690.590.55
YoY Growth--0.90%4.05%6.13%9.18%17.66%15.00%15.95%17.22%6.85%11.48%
Dividend Yield--3.04%4.45%3.74%3.11%3.19%3.79%2.19%1.53%1.53%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.391.490.90
Cash Retained (M)4.674.674.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.39-1.49-0.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.283.173.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.535.535.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.570.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.570.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.60%4.60%5.60%
Fair Value$32.66$44.11$60.59
Upside / Downside-24.58%1.86%39.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.9512.5013.0813.6814.3114.9715.42
Payout Ratio60.97%66.77%72.58%78.39%84.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.298.359.4910.7212.0513.4714.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.60%4.60%5.60%
Year 1 PV (M)7.587.657.73
Year 2 PV (M)7.837.988.13
Year 3 PV (M)8.038.268.50
Year 4 PV (M)8.198.518.84
Year 5 PV (M)8.318.729.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)144.75151.87159.27
Equity Value (M)184.68192.99201.61
Shares Outstanding (M)5.535.535.53
Fair Value$33.37$34.88$36.43
Upside / Downside-22.92%-19.45%-15.86%

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