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Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$113.15 - $302.06$173.36
Multi-Stage$83.04 - $90.41$86.66
Blended Fair Value$130.01
Current Price$53.82
Upside141.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.15%36.58%4.626.015.443.002.812.602.300.610.200.20
YoY Growth---23.12%10.32%81.60%6.77%7.86%13.21%278.57%196.97%0.00%0.02%
Dividend Yield--6.99%12.16%11.51%5.32%6.76%9.64%5.47%2.09%0.63%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,323.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,045.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)278.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)464.60290.38174.23
Cash Retained (M)278.00278.00278.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-464.60-290.38-174.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-186.60-12.38103.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)484.00484.00484.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.39-0.030.21
LTM Dividend per Share4.234.234.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.39-0.030.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.844.204.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$113.15$173.36$302.06
Upside / Downside110.24%222.11%461.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,323.002,474.002,634.802,806.072,988.463,182.713,278.19
Payout Ratio88.03%88.43%88.82%89.21%89.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,045.002,187.662,340.222,503.382,677.862,864.443,032.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,986.722,005.552,024.39
Year 2 PV (M)1,930.071,966.832,003.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,874.991,928.821,983.66
Year 4 PV (M)1,821.451,891.501,963.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,769.411,854.871,943.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,807.8432,295.8733,840.85
Equity Value (M)40,190.4941,943.4543,760.00
Shares Outstanding (M)484.00484.00484.00
Fair Value$83.04$86.66$90.41
Upside / Downside54.29%61.02%67.99%

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