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ViƱa Concha y Toro S.A. (CONCHATORO.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,752.98 - $8,818.06$4,444.91
Multi-Stage$2,993.23 - $3,282.68$3,135.24
Blended Fair Value$3,790.07
Current Price$1,054.00
Upside259.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%0.00%28.6443.5029.7366.1230.0225.9124.9527.9228.0224.70
YoY Growth---34.17%46.32%-55.04%120.25%15.89%3.82%-10.62%-0.38%13.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.36%3.64%2.92%5.21%2.43%2.40%1.75%2.17%2.50%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78,062.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32,166.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,895.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,612.409,757.755,854.65
Cash Retained (M)45,895.2545,895.2545,895.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,612.40-9,757.75-5,854.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,282.8536,137.5040,040.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)739.02739.02739.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.9848.9054.18
LTM Dividend per Share43.5343.5343.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.9848.9054.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend84.5092.4397.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Fair Value$2,752.98$4,444.91$8,818.06
Upside / Downside161.19%321.72%736.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78,062.0281,257.3184,583.4088,045.6391,649.5895,401.0598,263.08
Payout Ratio41.21%50.97%60.72%70.48%80.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32,166.7741,413.0751,362.4362,056.9173,540.8585,860.9590,893.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Year 1 PV (M)38,599.7538,974.1739,348.58
Year 2 PV (M)44,621.0545,490.8946,369.13
Year 3 PV (M)50,249.4651,725.9553,231.07
Year 4 PV (M)55,503.0757,688.1159,937.05
Year 5 PV (M)60,399.1963,385.9266,489.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,962,687.302,059,741.852,160,598.45
Equity Value (M)2,212,059.822,317,006.892,425,973.94
Shares Outstanding (M)739.02739.02739.02
Fair Value$2,993.23$3,135.24$3,282.68
Upside / Downside183.99%197.46%211.45%

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