Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Antofagasta plc (ANTO.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.09 - $27.34$21.74
Multi-Stage$25.08 - $27.51$26.27
Blended Fair Value$24.01
Current Price$24.85
Upside-3.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.56%-10.52%0.320.621.280.720.130.480.470.260.030.13
YoY Growth---48.24%-51.45%77.67%441.77%-72.10%0.73%85.06%724.51%-75.94%-86.81%
Dividend Yield--1.62%2.96%6.86%3.98%0.68%3.93%4.75%1.89%0.37%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,594.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)548.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,046.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)318.98199.36119.62
Cash Retained (M)1,046.201,046.201,046.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-318.98-199.36-119.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)727.22846.84926.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)985.86985.86985.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.421.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$17.09$21.74$27.34
Upside / Downside-31.22%-12.53%10.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,594.901,619.481,644.441,669.791,695.531,721.661,773.31
Payout Ratio34.40%45.52%56.64%67.76%78.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)548.70737.23931.451,131.471,337.441,549.491,640.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)674.94681.65688.36
Year 2 PV (M)780.69796.29812.05
Year 3 PV (M)868.20894.37921.05
Year 4 PV (M)939.53977.471,016.55
Year 5 PV (M)996.521,047.071,099.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,467.9621,506.3022,586.35
Equity Value (M)24,727.8325,903.1527,124.03
Shares Outstanding (M)985.86985.86985.86
Fair Value$25.08$26.27$27.51
Upside / Downside0.94%5.73%10.72%

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