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Taiwan Shin Kong Security Co., Ltd. (9925.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.46 - $42.69$33.77
Multi-Stage$52.21 - $57.30$54.71
Blended Fair Value$44.24
Current Price$40.85
Upside8.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.20%1.26%2.022.022.022.021.902.002.002.002.001.90
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%6.32%-5.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.26%6.61%
Dividend Yield--4.88%4.90%4.95%5.05%4.97%5.88%5.26%5.19%5.03%4.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)952.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)775.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)190.53119.0871.45
Cash Retained (M)177.17177.17177.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-190.53-119.08-71.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.3558.09105.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.54384.54384.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.150.27
LTM Dividend per Share2.022.022.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.150.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Fair Value$26.46$33.77$42.69
Upside / Downside-35.22%-17.33%4.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)952.63955.83959.04962.26965.49968.73997.79
Payout Ratio81.40%83.12%84.84%86.56%88.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)775.46794.50813.66832.94852.34871.86922.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Year 1 PV (M)736.66744.08751.49
Year 2 PV (M)699.51713.66727.96
Year 3 PV (M)663.96684.21704.88
Year 4 PV (M)629.97655.72682.25
Year 5 PV (M)597.49628.17660.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,750.8117,611.1018,506.38
Equity Value (M)20,078.3921,036.9522,033.07
Shares Outstanding (M)384.54384.54384.54
Fair Value$52.21$54.71$57.30
Upside / Downside27.82%33.92%40.26%

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