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Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited (9922.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.20 - $3.37$2.74
Multi-Stage$4.80 - $5.28$5.04
Blended Fair Value$3.89
Current Price$2.55
Upside52.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS45.06%0.00%0.140.010.050.030.040.020.020.010.010.00
YoY Growth--1,405.89%-81.97%45.62%-16.16%93.75%21.21%23.75%122.22%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.21%0.17%0.27%0.31%0.21%0.23%0.19%0.16%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)347.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.5543.4726.08
Cash Retained (M)155.07155.07155.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.55-43.47-26.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.52111.60128.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,421.491,421.491,421.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.20$2.74$3.37
Upside / Downside-13.77%7.62%32.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)347.75344.27340.83337.42334.05330.70340.63
Payout Ratio55.41%62.33%69.24%76.16%83.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.68214.57236.00256.99277.53297.63315.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)199.02201.05203.09
Year 2 PV (M)203.04207.21211.42
Year 3 PV (M)205.08211.42217.89
Year 4 PV (M)205.42213.94222.71
Year 5 PV (M)204.34214.98226.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,811.566,114.186,429.28
Equity Value (M)6,828.487,162.797,510.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,421.491,421.491,421.49
Fair Value$4.80$5.04$5.28
Upside / Downside88.38%97.61%107.20%

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