Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Keir International Co. (9542.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.47 - $3.77$3.08
Multi-Stage$5.15 - $5.67$5.40
Blended Fair Value$4.24
Current Price$3.71
Upside14.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.070.080.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---62.72%-5.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.61%1.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.714.192.52
Cash Retained (M)25.7125.7125.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.71-4.19-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.0021.5123.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.47$3.08$3.77
Upside / Downside-33.29%-16.91%1.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.5433.2032.8732.5432.2131.8932.85
Payout Ratio23.35%36.68%50.01%63.34%76.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.8312.1816.4420.6124.7028.7030.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.2811.4011.51
Year 2 PV (M)14.1114.4014.69
Year 3 PV (M)16.3916.8917.41
Year 4 PV (M)18.1918.9519.72
Year 5 PV (M)19.5920.6121.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)538.15566.18595.36
Equity Value (M)617.71648.42680.36
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$5.15$5.40$5.67
Upside / Downside38.75%45.65%52.82%

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