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Hunan Warrant Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (688799.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$186.57 - $452.17$423.75
Multi-Stage$67.40 - $73.70$70.49
Blended Fair Value$247.12
Current Price$57.18
Upside332.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS19.68%42.65%0.920.900.700.000.380.380.010.020.020.03
YoY Growth--2.26%28.61%0.00%-100.00%-0.04%4,771.22%-65.36%42.45%-43.19%4.06%
Dividend Yield--3.25%2.46%2.66%0.00%0.97%0.97%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.6126.6315.98
Cash Retained (M)70.0170.0170.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.61-26.63-15.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4043.3854.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.7093.7093.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.460.58
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.460.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.821.992.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$186.57$423.75$452.17
Upside / Downside226.28%641.09%690.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.03226.88241.63257.33274.06291.87300.63
Payout Ratio67.14%71.71%76.28%80.86%85.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143.03162.70184.32208.07234.12262.68278.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)151.29152.73154.16
Year 2 PV (M)159.38162.42165.48
Year 3 PV (M)167.31172.11177.00
Year 4 PV (M)175.06181.79188.72
Year 5 PV (M)182.65191.47200.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,479.715,744.386,019.18
Equity Value (M)6,315.406,604.906,905.18
Shares Outstanding (M)93.7093.7093.70
Fair Value$67.40$70.49$73.70
Upside / Downside17.88%23.28%28.89%

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