Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sun Art Retail Group Limited (6808.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.30 - $0.44$0.37
Multi-Stage$0.86 - $0.95$0.90
Blended Fair Value$0.64
Current Price$1.79
Upside-64.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.180.040.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--324.44%6.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.97%3.02%2.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.0050.6330.38
Cash Retained (M)232.00232.00232.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.00-50.63-30.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.00181.38201.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,540.459,540.459,540.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Fair Value$0.30$0.37$0.44
Upside / Downside-82.98%-79.24%-75.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.00390.96377.40364.32351.69339.50349.68
Payout Ratio42.72%52.17%61.63%71.09%80.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.00203.97232.59258.98283.26305.55323.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)190.11192.10194.09
Year 2 PV (M)202.05206.31210.60
Year 3 PV (M)209.69216.34223.14
Year 4 PV (M)213.76222.85232.23
Year 5 PV (M)214.91226.39238.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,154.407,536.777,935.31
Equity Value (M)8,184.928,600.779,033.74
Shares Outstanding (M)9,540.459,540.459,540.45
Fair Value$0.86$0.90$0.95
Upside / Downside-52.07%-49.64%-47.10%

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