Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nagaoka International Corporation (6239.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,023.81 - $1,581.72$1,282.79
Multi-Stage$2,288.52 - $2,520.86$2,402.40
Blended Fair Value$1,842.60
Current Price$1,480.00
Upside24.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%34.0223.1920.1615.129.900.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--46.75%15.04%33.34%52.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.82%2.02%2.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)772.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)535.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.4496.5257.91
Cash Retained (M)535.20535.20535.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.44-96.52-57.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)380.76438.67477.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share54.5062.7868.31
LTM Dividend per Share33.9233.9233.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share54.5062.7868.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.4296.70102.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,023.81$1,282.79$1,581.72
Upside / Downside-30.82%-13.33%6.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)772.20764.48756.83749.26741.77734.35756.38
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.41%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.00325.31411.83496.59579.61660.92699.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)302.47305.56308.65
Year 2 PV (M)356.04363.34370.72
Year 3 PV (M)399.18411.52424.12
Year 4 PV (M)433.21451.16469.67
Year 5 PV (M)459.31483.22508.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,039.5914,770.6715,531.88
Equity Value (M)15,989.8016,785.4817,613.17
Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
Fair Value$2,288.52$2,402.40$2,520.86
Upside / Downside54.63%62.32%70.33%

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