Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AirTrip Corp. (6191.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,052.67 - $1,824.20$1,383.89
Multi-Stage$1,726.46 - $1,898.67$1,810.90
Blended Fair Value$1,597.40
Current Price$980.00
Upside63.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.51%0.00%9.939.939.849.809.048.777.845.260.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.90%0.45%8.37%3.05%11.93%49.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.87%0.53%0.40%0.29%0.70%0.39%0.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,840.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.00230.00138.00
Cash Retained (M)1,617.001,617.001,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.00-230.00-138.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,249.001,387.001,479.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.4522.4522.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.6361.7765.87
LTM Dividend per Share9.939.939.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.6361.7765.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend65.5671.7175.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Fair Value$1,052.67$1,383.89$1,824.20
Upside / Downside7.42%41.21%86.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,840.001,867.791,896.001,924.641,953.711,983.212,042.71
Payout Ratio12.12%27.70%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.00517.30820.431,132.611,454.021,784.891,889.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Year 1 PV (M)479.72484.50489.27
Year 2 PV (M)705.58719.69733.94
Year 3 PV (M)903.30930.53958.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,075.411,118.851,163.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,224.241,286.361,350.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,375.3636,119.7737,934.29
Equity Value (M)38,763.6140,659.7042,630.37
Shares Outstanding (M)22.4522.4522.45
Fair Value$1,726.46$1,810.90$1,898.67
Upside / Downside76.17%84.79%93.74%

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