Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

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GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc. (603986.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.34 - $404.01$287.17
Multi-Stage$48.87 - $53.51$51.15
Blended Fair Value$169.16
Current Price$213.30
Upside-20.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.02%4.31%0.020.631.070.400.190.140.140.080.000.02
YoY Growth---96.39%-41.07%166.27%111.48%39.95%-0.62%72.17%0.00%-100.00%45.32%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.87%0.88%0.29%0.16%0.11%0.26%0.11%0.00%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,353.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,129.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)270.73169.21101.52
Cash Retained (M)1,129.701,129.701,129.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-270.73-169.21-101.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)858.96960.491,028.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)666.35666.35666.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.441.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.441.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.34$287.17$404.01
Upside / Downside-51.55%34.63%89.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,353.661,441.651,535.351,635.151,741.441,854.631,910.27
Payout Ratio16.54%31.24%45.93%60.62%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.96450.31705.14991.201,311.461,669.171,767.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)416.28420.23424.17
Year 2 PV (M)602.59614.07625.66
Year 3 PV (M)783.03805.51828.41
Year 4 PV (M)957.74994.571,032.46
Year 5 PV (M)1,126.851,181.281,237.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,680.9030,066.2031,504.52
Equity Value (M)32,567.4034,081.8635,653.00
Shares Outstanding (M)666.35666.35666.35
Fair Value$48.87$51.15$53.51
Upside / Downside-77.09%-76.02%-74.92%

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