Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

JCHX Mining Management Co.,Ltd. (603979.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.30 - $196.11$116.57
Multi-Stage$53.15 - $58.08$55.57
Blended Fair Value$86.07
Current Price$69.74
Upside23.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.99%12.74%0.440.110.090.070.070.070.070.030.050.04
YoY Growth--299.20%20.81%28.91%-0.03%6.70%-1.35%95.00%-25.00%2.04%-66.03%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.21%0.30%0.34%0.48%0.85%0.73%0.37%0.30%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,243.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,863.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)448.75280.47168.28
Cash Retained (M)1,863.381,863.381,863.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-448.75-280.47-168.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.631,582.911,695.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.30$116.57$196.11
Upside / Downside10.84%67.15%181.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,243.732,389.572,544.892,710.312,886.483,074.103,166.33
Payout Ratio16.95%31.56%46.17%60.78%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.35754.181,175.001,647.352,176.132,766.692,928.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)683.94690.43696.91
Year 2 PV (M)966.33984.741,003.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,228.621,263.891,299.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,471.841,528.441,586.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,697.001,778.961,864.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,815.8730,207.6831,652.77
Equity Value (M)34,863.6036,454.1438,103.55
Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
Fair Value$53.15$55.57$58.08
Upside / Downside-23.80%-20.32%-16.71%

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