Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co., Ltd. (Tianjin) (603969.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.29 - $15.52$10.36
Multi-Stage$8.85 - $9.72$9.28
Blended Fair Value$9.82
Current Price$10.77
Upside-8.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.93%7.17%0.090.080.030.090.090.140.090.110.070.04
YoY Growth--20.82%195.21%-72.56%5.42%-35.87%53.27%-16.40%55.26%62.79%-6.76%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.35%0.54%1.74%1.97%3.50%1.39%1.68%0.93%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)341.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)314.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.2142.6325.58
Cash Retained (M)314.51314.51314.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.21-42.63-25.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.30271.88288.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)855.34855.34855.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$7.29$10.36$15.52
Upside / Downside-32.31%-3.76%44.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)341.03352.67364.71377.16390.03403.35415.45
Payout Ratio7.78%24.22%40.67%57.11%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.5285.42148.31215.40286.89363.01384.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)79.1479.9180.69
Year 2 PV (M)127.30129.80132.32
Year 3 PV (M)171.28176.35181.52
Year 4 PV (M)211.36219.73228.36
Year 5 PV (M)247.77260.10272.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,735.217,070.527,419.05
Equity Value (M)7,572.067,936.428,314.86
Shares Outstanding (M)855.34855.34855.34
Fair Value$8.85$9.28$9.72
Upside / Downside-17.80%-13.85%-9.74%

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