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Guangzhou Guangri Stock Co.,Ltd. (600894.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.28 - $44.04$26.10
Multi-Stage$20.98 - $22.96$21.95
Blended Fair Value$24.02
Current Price$9.89
Upside142.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.27%33.54%1.310.180.240.410.160.060.150.410.790.20
YoY Growth--612.04%-21.95%-42.14%163.18%172.23%-60.82%-64.86%-47.44%299.53%170.85%
Dividend Yield--10.92%2.02%3.20%5.33%1.80%0.78%1.98%4.71%5.86%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)664.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)651.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.8983.0549.83
Cash Retained (M)12.8412.8412.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.89-83.05-49.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-120.05-70.22-37.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)850.06850.06850.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.08-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.08-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Fair Value$17.28$26.10$44.04
Upside / Downside74.71%163.87%345.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)664.44689.70715.93743.16771.42800.75824.77
Payout Ratio98.07%96.45%94.84%93.23%91.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)651.60665.25678.99692.82706.72720.68762.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)618.50624.51630.53
Year 2 PV (M)586.91598.38609.97
Year 3 PV (M)556.77573.18589.91
Year 4 PV (M)528.03548.87570.33
Year 5 PV (M)500.61525.44551.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,042.1315,788.1016,563.38
Equity Value (M)17,832.9418,658.4919,515.35
Shares Outstanding (M)850.06850.06850.06
Fair Value$20.98$21.95$22.96
Upside / Downside112.12%121.94%132.13%

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