Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Haixin Group Co., Ltd. (600851.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.24 - $1.89$1.54
Multi-Stage$1.12 - $1.22$1.17
Blended Fair Value$1.36
Current Price$6.56
Upside-79.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.32%10.06%0.070.050.040.040.030.050.030.030.080.11
YoY Growth--43.16%21.84%1.37%14.04%-32.62%40.56%24.27%-64.49%-29.11%336.40%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.79%0.62%0.48%0.41%0.60%0.40%0.26%0.68%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2519.5311.72
Cash Retained (M)132.59132.59132.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.25-19.53-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.34113.06120.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.171,206.171,206.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate13.05%13.05%13.05%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$1.24$1.54$1.89
Upside / Downside-81.12%-76.45%-71.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.25164.56173.32182.54192.25202.48208.56
Payout Ratio15.14%30.11%45.08%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6649.5678.14109.63144.24182.23192.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.05%13.05%13.05%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)43.4243.8444.25
Year 2 PV (M)59.9961.1462.31
Year 3 PV (M)73.7475.8878.06
Year 4 PV (M)85.0188.3291.72
Year 5 PV (M)94.1098.70103.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)991.461,039.901,090.21
Equity Value (M)1,347.721,407.781,470.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.171,206.171,206.17
Fair Value$1.12$1.17$1.22
Upside / Downside-82.97%-82.21%-81.42%

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