Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal Co., Ltd. Class A (600301.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$163.28 - $192.37$180.28
Multi-Stage$285.61 - $313.59$299.34
Blended Fair Value$239.81
Current Price$33.84
Upside608.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%47.67%0.190.110.170.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--82.77%-35.87%1,478.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.75%0.99%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)611.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)559.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.3276.4545.87
Cash Retained (M)559.92559.92559.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.32-76.45-45.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)437.60483.47514.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)632.27632.27632.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.850.89
WACC / Discount Rate-15.48%-15.48%-15.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$163.28$180.28$192.37
Upside / Downside382.49%432.73%468.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)611.58651.33693.67738.75786.77837.91863.05
Payout Ratio8.45%24.76%41.07%57.38%73.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.66161.25284.88423.89579.77754.12798.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-15.48%-15.48%-15.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)189.00190.79192.58
Year 2 PV (M)391.33398.78406.31
Year 3 PV (M)682.46702.05722.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,094.021,136.091,179.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,667.841,748.391,832.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)176,558.96185,086.82193,941.06
Equity Value (M)180,583.59189,262.92198,273.36
Shares Outstanding (M)632.27632.27632.27
Fair Value$285.61$299.34$313.59
Upside / Downside744.01%784.57%826.68%

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