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Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited (600020.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.65 - $5.57$4.55
Multi-Stage$9.40 - $10.34$9.86
Blended Fair Value$7.20
Current Price$4.23
Upside70.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.39%-0.67%0.610.540.640.660.700.811.010.860.870.77
YoY Growth--13.17%-15.72%-1.78%-6.31%-13.64%-19.51%16.98%-1.20%12.56%17.84%
Dividend Yield--13.97%14.52%20.52%19.94%20.78%21.50%15.43%18.13%17.75%14.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,018.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)801.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)203.71127.3276.39
Cash Retained (M)217.50217.50217.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-203.71-127.32-76.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.8090.19141.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,450.422,450.422,450.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.67%-1.67%-0.67%
Fair Value$3.65$4.55$5.57
Upside / Downside-13.62%7.60%31.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,018.531,001.57984.89968.49952.37936.51964.60
Payout Ratio78.65%80.92%83.19%85.46%87.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)801.03810.44819.31827.66835.50842.86892.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.67%-1.67%-0.67%
Year 1 PV (M)755.41763.17770.94
Year 2 PV (M)711.83726.53741.39
Year 3 PV (M)670.27691.14712.44
Year 4 PV (M)630.68657.00684.14
Year 5 PV (M)593.04624.14656.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,662.9920,694.0221,767.87
Equity Value (M)23,024.2224,156.0125,333.29
Shares Outstanding (M)2,450.422,450.422,450.42
Fair Value$9.40$9.86$10.34
Upside / Downside122.13%133.05%144.41%

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