Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Kagome Co., Ltd. (2811.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,822.19 - $28,346.43$24,699.89
Multi-Stage$4,317.78 - $4,729.16$4,519.66
Blended Fair Value$14,609.77
Current Price$2,870.50
Upside408.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.11%4.94%37.7835.0435.0534.4233.2837.9928.5323.3123.3917.60
YoY Growth--7.81%-0.03%1.83%3.44%-12.41%33.17%22.39%-0.32%32.87%-24.53%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.96%1.13%1.10%0.95%1.35%0.91%0.62%0.81%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,420.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,143.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,684.001,677.501,006.50
Cash Retained (M)8,143.008,143.008,143.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,684.00-1,677.50-1,006.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,459.006,465.507,136.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.5293.5293.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share58.3869.1476.31
LTM Dividend per Share56.4356.4356.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share58.3869.1476.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend114.80125.57132.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Fair Value$7,822.19$24,699.89$28,346.43
Upside / Downside172.50%760.47%887.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,420.0014,194.6015,013.9115,880.5216,797.1417,766.6718,299.67
Payout Ratio39.32%49.46%59.59%69.73%79.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,277.007,020.308,947.2611,073.2913,414.9315,990.0016,927.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Year 1 PV (M)6,541.206,603.636,666.06
Year 2 PV (M)7,767.727,916.708,067.10
Year 3 PV (M)8,957.399,216.329,480.21
Year 4 PV (M)10,111.0110,502.6010,905.44
Year 5 PV (M)11,229.4011,775.6212,342.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)359,171.91376,642.89394,787.21
Equity Value (M)403,778.62422,657.76442,248.93
Shares Outstanding (M)93.5293.5293.52
Fair Value$4,317.78$4,519.66$4,729.16
Upside / Downside50.42%57.45%64.75%

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