Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Dawn Corp. (2303.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,883.94 - $7,280.08$4,341.94
Multi-Stage$1,963.75 - $2,147.42$2,053.92
Blended Fair Value$3,197.93
Current Price$2,451.00
Upside30.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS20.73%0.00%20.0316.2214.5912.5110.417.810.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--23.53%11.16%16.60%20.22%33.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.80%0.75%0.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)391.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)361.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.3248.9529.37
Cash Retained (M)361.00361.00361.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.32-48.95-29.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)282.68312.05331.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.063.063.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share92.50102.11108.52
LTM Dividend per Share10.0210.0210.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share92.50102.11108.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend102.52112.13118.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,883.94$4,341.94$7,280.08
Upside / Downside17.66%77.15%197.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)391.61417.07444.18473.05503.80536.54552.64
Payout Ratio7.82%24.25%40.69%57.13%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.61101.15180.73270.24370.61482.89511.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.7292.5993.46
Year 2 PV (M)148.59151.42154.28
Year 3 PV (M)201.46207.24213.13
Year 4 PV (M)250.52260.15270.06
Year 5 PV (M)295.97310.27325.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,012.765,254.885,506.26
Equity Value (M)6,001.016,276.546,562.30
Shares Outstanding (M)3.063.063.06
Fair Value$1,963.75$2,053.92$2,147.42
Upside / Downside-19.88%-16.20%-12.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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