Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co., Ltd. (000716.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.62 - $1.01$0.79
Multi-Stage$1.37 - $1.50$1.43
Blended Fair Value$1.11
Current Price$6.10
Upside-81.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.99%4.17%0.130.100.120.130.020.130.180.090.120.09
YoY Growth--29.42%-16.82%-6.88%543.41%-85.25%-24.71%109.31%-26.35%33.95%1.77%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.93%1.39%3.77%0.63%3.11%3.43%1.62%1.44%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.565.353.21
Cash Retained (M)2.572.572.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.56-5.35-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.99-2.78-0.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)748.85748.85748.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Fair Value$0.62$0.79$1.01
Upside / Downside-89.84%-86.99%-83.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.8042.8142.8142.8142.8142.8144.10
Payout Ratio93.99%93.19%92.39%91.59%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2339.8939.5539.2138.8738.5340.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)37.1537.5237.90
Year 2 PV (M)34.3035.0035.70
Year 3 PV (M)31.6732.6433.63
Year 4 PV (M)29.2330.4331.67
Year 5 PV (M)26.9928.3829.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)863.14907.62953.92
Equity Value (M)1,022.481,071.591,122.64
Shares Outstanding (M)748.85748.85748.85
Fair Value$1.37$1.43$1.50
Upside / Downside-77.62%-76.54%-75.42%

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