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Venture Global, Inc. (VG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.38 - $9.18$7.74
Multi-Stage$10.26 - $11.27$10.76
Blended Fair Value$9.25
Current Price$14.19
Upside-34.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.060.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---15.24%2,633.33%-14.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.52%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,333.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)562.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,771.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)466.60291.63174.98
Cash Retained (M)1,771.001,771.001,771.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-466.60-291.63-174.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,304.401,479.381,596.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.642,584.642,584.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.570.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.570.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.38$7.74$9.18
Upside / Downside-55.06%-45.43%-35.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,333.002,309.672,286.572,263.712,241.072,218.662,285.22
Payout Ratio24.09%37.27%50.45%63.64%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)562.00860.841,153.661,440.531,721.541,996.792,113.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)781.09789.06797.03
Year 2 PV (M)949.78969.27988.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,076.081,109.351,143.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,166.851,215.211,265.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,228.021,291.961,358.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,318.3122,428.4023,584.26
Equity Value (M)26,520.1127,803.2529,137.15
Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.642,584.642,584.64
Fair Value$10.26$10.76$11.27
Upside / Downside-27.69%-24.19%-20.56%

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