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PT Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia Tbk. (CEKA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46,773.23 - $89,220.81$83,612.97
Multi-Stage$13,903.75 - $15,222.89$14,551.18
Blended Fair Value$49,082.07
Current Price$2,650.00
Upside1,752.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%7.19%99.8699.8699.8699.8699.8699.8544.89149.750.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%122.41%-70.02%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--4.76%5.26%4.94%5.37%5.40%8.32%4.34%11.35%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)266,933.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89,123.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)177,809.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53,386.6833,366.6820,020.01
Cash Retained (M)177,809.99177,809.99177,809.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-53,386.68-33,366.68-20,020.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)124,423.31144,443.31157,789.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.00595.00595.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share209.11242.76265.19
LTM Dividend per Share149.79149.79149.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share209.11242.76265.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend358.90392.55414.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46,773.23$83,612.97$89,220.81
Upside / Downside1,665.03%3,055.21%3,266.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)266,933.42284,284.09302,762.56322,442.13343,400.87365,721.92376,693.58
Payout Ratio33.39%44.71%56.03%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89,123.43127,104.30169,646.14217,181.39270,179.48329,149.73348,441.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)118,437.96119,560.59120,683.23
Year 2 PV (M)147,300.87150,106.54152,938.67
Year 3 PV (M)175,717.34180,761.55185,901.39
Year 4 PV (M)203,692.50211,525.94219,583.17
Year 5 PV (M)231,231.42242,399.98253,995.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,396,349.517,753,595.968,124,515.07
Equity Value (M)8,272,729.598,657,950.569,057,617.52
Shares Outstanding (M)595.00595.00595.00
Fair Value$13,903.75$14,551.18$15,222.89
Upside / Downside424.67%449.10%474.45%

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