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American States Water Company (AWR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.41 - $210.64$121.42
Multi-Stage$56.35 - $61.46$58.86
Blended Fair Value$90.14
Current Price$73.32
Upside22.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.43%7.63%1.741.591.471.341.231.111.010.950.870.85
YoY Growth--9.51%8.59%9.03%9.50%10.55%9.67%6.92%9.01%2.20%1.80%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.22%1.65%1.51%1.62%1.36%1.44%1.79%1.96%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0316.279.76
Cash Retained (M)57.4157.4157.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.03-16.27-9.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3841.1447.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.4438.4438.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.071.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.891.891.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.071.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.712.963.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$79.41$121.42$210.64
Upside / Downside8.30%65.60%187.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.14138.59147.60157.20167.42178.30183.65
Payout Ratio55.89%62.71%69.53%76.35%83.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.7386.91102.63120.03139.25160.47169.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)78.9279.6680.41
Year 2 PV (M)84.6286.2387.85
Year 3 PV (M)89.8592.4395.06
Year 4 PV (M)94.6698.30102.04
Year 5 PV (M)99.04103.83108.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,719.361,802.411,888.63
Equity Value (M)2,166.452,262.862,362.79
Shares Outstanding (M)38.4438.4438.44
Fair Value$56.35$58.86$61.46
Upside / Downside-23.14%-19.72%-16.17%

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