Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited (601989.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.71 - $1.00$0.85
Multi-Stage$1.22 - $1.34$1.28
Blended Fair Value$1.06
Current Price$4.64
Upside-77.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.09%-13.37%0.040.030.030.020.040.060.060.080.090.14
YoY Growth--30.07%-13.20%56.88%-49.65%-30.37%-6.94%-24.95%-3.68%-37.59%-8.69%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.59%0.84%0.53%0.98%1.37%0.97%1.52%1.15%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,523.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,222.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,300.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)504.73315.46189.27
Cash Retained (M)1,300.721,300.721,300.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-504.73-315.46-189.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)795.99985.261,111.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,684.0922,684.0922,684.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Fair Value$0.71$0.85$1.00
Upside / Downside-84.74%-81.64%-78.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,523.662,474.512,426.332,379.082,332.752,287.332,355.95
Payout Ratio48.46%56.77%65.08%73.38%81.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,222.941,404.711,578.941,745.861,905.672,058.592,179.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)1,272.601,285.711,298.83
Year 2 PV (M)1,295.911,322.761,349.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,298.141,338.681,380.06
Year 4 PV (M)1,283.711,337.441,392.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,256.301,322.371,391.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,260.1222,378.2123,542.86
Equity Value (M)27,666.7828,985.1730,355.65
Shares Outstanding (M)22,684.0922,684.0922,684.09
Fair Value$1.22$1.28$1.34
Upside / Downside-73.71%-72.46%-71.16%

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