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NIPPON REIT Investment Corporation (3296.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156,616.69 - $285,373.70$210,057.74
Multi-Stage$266,017.35 - $291,933.76$278,728.33
Blended Fair Value$244,393.03
Current Price$88,400.00
Upside176.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.29%36.82%4,619.344,318.945,135.155,741.604,542.694,553.593,869.833,501.883,291.911,753.87
YoY Growth--6.96%-15.89%-10.56%26.39%-0.24%17.67%10.51%6.38%87.69%772.98%
Dividend Yield--6.07%5.14%5.91%5.60%4.90%3.81%4.25%4.33%4.62%2.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,723.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,570.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,152.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,944.652,465.401,479.24
Cash Retained (M)7,152.757,152.757,152.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,944.65-2,465.40-1,479.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,208.104,687.355,673.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.791.791.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,790.352,615.873,166.22
LTM Dividend per Share7,015.237,015.237,015.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,790.352,615.873,166.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,805.589,631.1010,181.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Fair Value$156,616.69$210,057.74$285,373.70
Upside / Downside77.17%137.62%222.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,723.2420,081.1620,445.5820,816.6121,194.3821,579.0022,226.37
Payout Ratio63.73%68.99%74.24%79.49%84.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,570.4813,853.4915,178.9316,547.9117,961.5719,421.1020,559.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)12,882.2813,010.0613,137.84
Year 2 PV (M)13,125.2613,386.9413,651.19
Year 3 PV (M)13,305.8713,705.7614,113.59
Year 4 PV (M)13,430.0613,970.9114,527.92
Year 5 PV (M)13,503.3314,186.4614,896.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)410,425.69431,188.98452,784.22
Equity Value (M)476,672.50499,449.11523,111.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1.791.791.79
Fair Value$266,017.35$278,728.33$291,933.76
Upside / Downside200.92%215.30%230.24%

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