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China Resources Gas Group Limited (1193.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$370.92 - $715.42$670.45
Multi-Stage$113.34 - $123.97$118.56
Blended Fair Value$394.51
Current Price$20.05
Upside1,867.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.19%18.03%1.261.051.270.930.870.740.530.430.360.29
YoY Growth--19.70%-17.32%36.56%6.90%17.65%40.00%22.22%18.54%26.74%20.11%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.06%4.33%2.11%2.11%1.73%1.70%1.54%1.67%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,169.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,232.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,936.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,633.871,021.17612.70
Cash Retained (M)2,936.832,936.832,936.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,633.87-1,021.17-612.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,302.951,915.652,324.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.952,270.952,270.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.841.02
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.841.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.883.153.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$370.92$670.45$715.42
Upside / Downside1,749.98%3,243.90%3,468.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,169.378,700.389,265.909,868.1910,509.6211,192.7511,528.53
Payout Ratio64.05%69.24%74.43%79.62%84.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,232.556,024.206,896.667,857.088,913.2310,073.4710,663.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,612.975,666.185,719.38
Year 2 PV (M)5,987.236,101.276,216.39
Year 3 PV (M)6,355.406,537.846,723.74
Year 4 PV (M)6,717.546,975.887,241.60
Year 5 PV (M)7,073.737,415.397,770.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)225,651.04236,550.07247,866.24
Equity Value (M)257,397.92269,246.64281,537.47
Shares Outstanding (M)2,270.952,270.952,270.95
Fair Value$113.34$118.56$123.97
Upside / Downside465.30%491.33%518.32%

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